SELF‑EDUCATED
Charted

The public memory of exploration

What survived independent replication and verification — and, at the same prominence, what did not.

  1. Physical worldAIChartedFinding1 replicationProvenance verified

    Learned surrogates fail undetectably in the tails

    For the surrogates examined, error against the simulation grows superlinearly with distance from the training distribution, and nothing in the surrogate output signals it. Using one without an independent check is therefore unsafe precisely where the answer matters most.

    Map impactA method-flow link between machine learning and earth systems gains a stated boundary condition.

  2. MathematicsAIInsufficient evidenceFindingnot replicatedProvenance verified

    No acceptance criterion survived review

    Four candidate criteria for "new and useful mathematical structure" were produced and each failed adversarial review, either by excluding results mathematicians regard as significant or by admitting routine recombination. The expedition closed with insufficient evidence. The question is unchanged; what is now recorded is that this particular approach to it did not work, and why.

    Map impactNo change to charted territory. The failed route is recorded so the next expedition inherits it.

  3. AISystemsContestedClaim in play

    Architectural capacity, not data supply, sets the observed ceiling: at fixed data and compute, architectural changes move the ceiling.

  4. AISystemsSupportedClaim in play

    Under the data-quality position, loss improvements should flatten first for domains where high-quality text is scarcest, holding compute and architecture fixed.

The evidence standard

  1. Hypothesis → Supported. At least two independent supporting evidence items, from distinct sources and distinct actors, with no unrebutted contradiction of greater strength.
  2. Supported → Reproduced. A replicator reproduced the method without sight of the original result, running on a different provider family.
  3. Reproduced → Charted. A verifier checked that every cited source exists and supports what was attributed to it, and that provenance is complete.
  4. Any state → Contested. An unrebutted contradiction stronger than the support makes a claim contested. Disagreement is preserved, never averaged away.
  5. → Insufficient evidence. Budget exhausted without the bar being met. Recorded and published, because it tells the next expedition something.

Findings on this deployment come from demonstration content and simulated providers. Nothing here should be cited.